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| Hurriyet Daily News |
The U.S. is
still the world’s leading super-power by nearly every measurement:
GDP, defense spending, and diplomatic influence. But, the U.S. has up
until now refused to take decisive action on the crisis in Syria because
of America's already stretched resources and the high-risk associated with
another intervention in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the U.S. must take a
more central and leading role in helping to find a peaceful resolution in Syria
or risk having the outcome further disturb America's power balance in the
region. If this dynamic is not fully realized, Turkey will grab a majority
share of the regional power hegemony instead.
Here are three examples
of Turkey becoming the central power broker in the region, over the U.S.:
1. The second ‘Friends of Syria’ conference, being initiated by
the Turkish Government and hosted in Istanbul on April 1st, aimed at the al-Assad regime in an
attempt to alleviate the military crackdown.
2. Syria appearing to renew
support and re-arm the Terrorist organization, the Kurdish Workers Party or PKK
in Turkey as retaliation towards the Turkish government’s calls for Bashar
al-Assad to step down.
3. Turkish Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu stating that “A joint
action plan should be implemented” and calling on the international community
to “react to the ‘agony’ in Syria with a common voice.”
Admittedly Turkey is a
strong ally to the U.S. in three major capacities: an economic partner, a defense technology partner, as well as a close NATO ally. But these recent actions are not on behalf of any of
these alliances, tacit or expressed. Unlike Libya where we were able to take
command by announcing beforehand we could lead from behind, here we have not
done so. What will arise from this will probably be a scrambled attempt to try
and retroactively insert this same line, when there currently and clearly
exists no such sentiment or intent.
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| Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu |
These emerging and
assertive roles are a smart move for Turkey in the stage of regional politics,
but at the cost of American influence in the region. A partial power vacuum in
the region has now emerged, with Syria as its nucleus. Russia (and China to a
lesser extent) has clearly staked their ground. Now Turkey has positioned
itself to make a play for the rest of what is available. The geographical
border between Turkey and Syria is over 500 miles long, easily dwarfing (by 2x
times) any of the other eight common borders Turkey shares with other
countries. The diplomatic relationship between Turkey and Syria has been long
and arduous due to lasting border disputes stemming back from the days of the
Ottoman Empire. Because of the inaction on the part of the U.S., making special
note that this is referring to not just in a militaristic capacity, we are
complacently retreating on this ground we have earned.
Cause for immediate alarm is not yet present, but the attitudes and sentiments
in Ankara have been shifting. Turkey's collapsing and nearly demolished
relationship with Israel has created a semi-awkward situation as a result of
the U.S.'s undying and unwavering support of the nation they are now at odds
with. What we do or choose not to do in these coming weeks will define us in
the decades to come (see my related article here). Because if a fracture between Ankara and Washington D.C.
emerges, we will be able to trace it back to this moment. Yes, the
relationship between Turkey and the U.S. is easily now the strongest it has
ever been. And No, this is not by any means an act of Turkish aggression. But
the diplomatic future remains uncertain and interests among allies are known to
drift apart over time.
The U.S. needs preemptively reassure Turkey by actively pressuring Damascus
with implementing greater, stricter sanctions, like the EU recently did,
and start to immediately send humanitarian aid into the region. Maybe then we
can bring help to those who are suffering at the hands of their own government,
whilst we wait on the gridlocked UN. With Russia’s policy shift to support Kofi
Annan’s recommendation for a ceasefire and the allowing of foreign relief aid
into Syria, the situation is progressing. The cessation of the conflict is
still of the utmost importance.
(UPDATE: Since this
article was written, President Obama and Turkish PM Erdoğan have discussed
sending "non-lethal" aid to the Syrian opposition. See the CNN
Article Here)
