I wrote this analysis for a course I took called '9/11 and the War on Terror.' This policy memo served as our term paper, in lieu of a traditional final exam. Our assignment was to examine an aspect of the war in Afghanistan. I chose this topic because of my Canadian roots and my interest in NATO. Learn how early friendly fire incidents and experiencing the highest proportional rate of fatalities amongst active ISAF partners provided Canada’s policy makers with adequate justification for actually expressing the public’s will in regards to reducing military engagement. However, an analysis of public opinion, voting trends, and implemented policy clearly demonstrate Canada’s commitment to NATO and ISAF, even amidst the Afghan disengagement.
Executive Summary
The first Canadian casualties in the Afghanistan war
were inflicted as a result of friendly fire. A U.S. F-16 fighter pilot bombed a
staging area for a Canadian training exercise in a location known as the Tarnak
Farms.[1]
This incident happened just over six months into the Afghan war. By examining
the background of this friendly fire incident, insight to the continued
Canadian commitment can be gleaned. Furthermore, Canada has experienced the
highest proportional rate of fatalities amongst active ISAF partners in Afghanistan.[2]
Canadian policymakers proceeded to utilize this information when they reduced
troop levels at a time when the U.S. was planning a troop surge.[3]
This reality altered and shifted Canada’s role with ISAF in Afghanistan. Canada
then began disengagement in Afghanistan and reverting to a support role in the
ISAF mission.
Public opinion polls taken in Canada after the 9/11
attacks concerning U.S. – Canadian relations and of the war in Afghanistan
under the Stephen Harper government will illustrate the opinion landscape. From
there, government policies will be examined for mention or justification
vis-à-vis public opinion. Historically, Canada and the U.S. have shared the
world’s largest economic relationship. They also share the world’s largest
border. Canada’s empathy for the 9/11 terrorist attack against the U.S. will
also be represented in public opinion polls. So it seems as if Canada must
continue to support their southern neighbors in endeavors of war as a way to
bolster other more beneficial channels. The relationship Canada has with the
U.S. appears to be one based upon ideological obligation, rather than one of
true support. So it appears that friendly fire incidents, while not the U.S.’s intentions,
and a higher rate of soldier deaths provide Canada’s policy makers with
adequate justification for actually expressing the public’s will in regards to
reducing military engagement. Similarly, voting patterns for the national
government are indicative of the waning support for the war in Afghanistan. The
elections in Canada in 2008 and 2006 will provide data as to how Canada voted
in a post 9/11 political theater during the lead-up to the U.S. surge. The
analysis and evaluation of public opinion, voting trends, and implemented
policy clearly demonstrate Canada’s commitment to NATO and ISAF, even amidst
the Afghan disengagement.
Canada’s Role
in Afghanistan
Canada is a founding signatory of
the North Atlantic Treaty. As such, Canada is one of the most senior partners
in the alliance, often taking on roles of leadership. After the September 11th
attack against the U.S. in 2001, by virtue of their NATO membership, Canada was
thrust into the Afghan War. In response to the attack, the U.S. invoked Article
5 of the NATO treaty which effectively made the attack on the U.S. an attack
against all of NATO’s members. This is the first, and only, time this common
defense article has been invoked. The response was assembled, but how the joint
military force would manifest had yet to be established. It was not until late
2001 that the UN passed Security Council Resolution 1386, which “authorize[d],
as envisaged in Annex 1 to the Bonn Agreement, the establishment for 6 months
of an International Security Assistance Force.”[4]
As the UN mentioned, the outline for the ISAF force was described in the Bonn
Agreement and was charged with, “assist[ing] in the maintenance of security for
Kabul and its surrounding areas” with the understanding that “such a force
could, as appropriate, be progressively expanded to other urban centres and
other areas.”[5]
According to the Canadian Minister
of Defence, the first Canadian personnel to arrive in Afghanistan was,
“approximately 40 JTF2 (Joint Task Force) Operators on the ground in
Afghanistan, in or around Kandahar.”[6]
As the force build up in Afghanistan continued into 2002, Canada was fully
compliant with ISAF military directives and they fought alongside their
American and ISAF counter-parts. NATO assumed command of ISAF on August 11th,
2003.[7]
After the change in command, Canadian forces began their contribution to NATO,
Operation Athena. Based in the capital, Kabul, and later expanding to Kandahar
Province, Operation Athena focused on peace building exercises and civilian
population interaction.[8]
Fratricide
and Troop Casualty Rates
During a Canadian only training
exercise in April of 2002, Canadian forces would be dealt their single largest
troop loss since the Korean War. The absolutely tragic nature of the Canadian
loss was multiplied by the fact that it was “an American F-16 fighter jet
[that] dropped a laser-guided 225-kilogram bomb” on the Tarnak farms training
area. The devastating result was a total of 4 deaths and 8 injuries, marking
the first loss of Canadian forces in the Afghan War. There was a major outcry
from the Canadian public and outrage from government officials. Once more details about the tragic friendly
fire incident were revealed, the anger grew. There was even public criticism
from the Canadian military that was directed at the U.S. forces. General Ray
Henault, Canadian Chief of Staff, immediately stated that, “Without a doubt,
there was a misidentification of the Canadians and what they were doing on the
ground and that was obviously the cause of this accident.”[9]
In response, President George W. Bush offered a public apology for the tragedy
and commended and thanked the Canadian forces for their continued support.
As the investigation of the incident
by U.S. officials continued on, there was extensive media coverage of the
developments. There were multiple sources of cause célèbre that resulted from
this incident. The damning evidence regarding the sortie resulted in the U.S.
pilot and his wingman being brought up on an Article 32 Inquiry for the
incident. The resolution from the U.S. Air Force angered the Canadian public. Not
only did the U.S. Air Force decide to not court martial the two pilots, but the
wingman’s charges were dismissed and the pilot responsible for dropping the bomb
was eventually just charged with, and found guilty of, a single count of dereliction
of duty.[10] This
event primed the Canadian public’s perception of the Afghan War and provided a
macabre tone from the onset.
The
initial intensity of conflict for the majority of Canadian forces in
Afghanistan was relatively low. The counter insurgency style of warfare and the
road patrols set the terms for the type of attacks that would be directed at
Canadian forces. The wide majority of Canadian casualties and fatalities are
the result of improvised explosive devices (IED’s). Quite often overlooked in
the entire Afghan conflict is the fact that Canadian forces experience a higher
rate of loss per capita than any of the other coalition partners.[11]
However this statistic is not lost on the Canadian public. The big benchmark
for Canadian forces fatalities hit in December of 2008 when the 100th
soldier died. Eventually the entire cost of Canada’s involvement would rise to 158,
with the most recent death coming in October 2011.[12]
Public
Opinion in Canada
Canadians have classically held a
favorable view of the American population, even if their view of the U.S.
government has not been so favorable. In late 2001, Queen’s University in Kingston,
Ontario conducted a series of opinion polls regarding Canada -U.S. relations.
Their data showed that in the wake of 9/11, 80% of Canadians had a favorable
view of the U.S. and that the 9/11 attacks made over 96% of Canadians
personally upset.[13]
Interestingly, the poll when on to inquire about role Canada should play in
response to the attacks by either fully supporting the U.S. in the war on
terror or addressing the root causes of terrorism. The result was split, with
44% for full support verses 48% for addressing the cause.[14]
After four years of military engagement, the Canadian
public’s support for the Afghan war had become the minority (47%) sentiment.[15]
In July 2006 when Ipsos conducted the survey, Canada had only lost 19 soldiers
in Afghanistan, but 11 of them came in the previous 4 months. Compounding the
toll was the loss of a Canadian diplomat in a suicide bombing in Kandahar. Diplomatic
cables considered this a damaging blow to Canada calling the attack “a bit of a
wake-up call for the Canadian public.”[16]
The fatalities rapidly doubled and the support for the war began a continued
decline. This trend was especially evident in December of 2008 when Canada
suffered its 100th soldier killed. Since 2006 when the support for
the war was the minority opinion to December 2008, the trend showed an average
doubling of fatalities annually.
The slumping approval for the war in Afghanistan would
continue. In July of 2009, the majority of the Canadian public (52%) favored
the projected 2011 withdrawal date for Canadian military operations.[17]
A scandal emerged in late 2009 concerning the treatment of Afghan prisoners. Canadian
troops were not accused of mistreatment, but rather the questions surrounded who
they were transferring prisoners to, the Afghan authorities. This was confirmed
when Richard Colvin stated that “according to our information, the likelihood
is that all the Afghans we handed over were tortured.”[18]
The Political
Response
The current Prime Minister of Canada
is Stephen Harper. He came into power in 2006 when the Conservative Party won
124 seats in Canada’s Parliament.[19]
Since then, he has won two more elections; in 2008 winning 143 seats[20]
and again in 2011 when the Conservative Party won 166 seats, enough to hold a
majority in Parliament.[21]
In terms of election issues, defense policy, which includes issues like war,
terrorism, and foreign policy, is not usually a major campaign issue. In the
past three elections, Canadians have ranked defense policy considerations near
the bottom of the issues that influence their votes. Never rising above single
digit consideration, polls showed that Canadians identified defense issues as a
major priority only 9% of the time in 2006, and then rapidly decreasing in 2008
to only 2.6% and was only at .4% in 2011.[22]
Harper’s foreign policy has been more aggressive than those
of past Prime Ministers, most notably in how his policies support and mimic the
U.S.’s actions. The Harper government has taken more hardline stances at the
UN, is a more vocal supporter of Israel, and has departed from Canada’s image
as the “Global Boy Scout.”[23]
Canada has also seen a nearly unparalleled military mobilization under the
Harper government, most notably with the continued involvement in the
multi-national Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, despite the rising costs.
Yet the overall view of the Harper government is still favorable in Canada, due
to the performance in social and economic interests. Harper wants to elevate
the status of Canada as a player on the national stage, but has to maneuver
between domestic politics and international commitments.
The Canadian troop commitment to ISAF was set to
expire in February 2009. In late 2007, Harper “called for an independent panel
to study the questions and recommend a way forward.”[24]
The conclusion of the Manley report suggested that there needs to be a mission
extension as well as increased support given to the Canadian forces in Kandahar.[25]
Harper accepted the “broad” terms and said “that his government accepts the
recommendations.”[26]
Following the release of the report, Harper’s government issued a bill to
incorporate the Manley recommendations into the Afghan role. The motion passed,
as it reflected the public’s opinion of the war and set a timeline for disengagement,
“calling for Canadian troops to leave Afghanistan by December 2011.”[27]As
the Canadian Foreign Minister pointed out, this crucial vote provided “Harper a
strong mandate heading into the upcoming NATO meeting in Bucharest.”[28]He
was able to secure the extra NATO support and in turn was able to extend
Canada’s commitment to NATO, thus fulfilling the requirements of the recently
passed motion. In the lead up to the impending fall 2008 federal election,
Harper was able to use the campaign promise that “We're planning our withdrawal
of Canadian troops from Afghanistan in 2011; at that point, the mission... as
we've known it, we intend to end it.”[29]So
when the Conservative Party won the 2008 election, Canada was then set to
proceed with their plan of disengagement. Likewise in the U.S., Barack Obama won
the 2008 presidential election. These exercises of democracy set the stage for
the two NATO ISAF partners.
The American focus on Iraq had left Afghanistan
neglected and the situation demanded a solution to get it back on track. Diplomatic
cables show that U.S. policy makers were actively considering military options
for Afghanistan in early and were shopping around for NATO support. The U.S. had
asked Canada about Afghan involvement post-2011, so they could make their plans
accordingly. However, a Canadian cable stated that because of “the hardening of
popular attitudes over the mission end in 2011” in conjunction with the
“growing unwillingness to contemplate a Canadian role in Afghanistan post-2011”
that public policy making has been constrained, preventing the discussion of
any commitment to combat or support roles in Afghanistan, at that point.[30]
In December of 2009,
Barack Obama called for 30,000 more troops to be sent to Afghanistan. The troop
surge was essentially a redoubling of counter insurgency efforts in
Afghanistan. After the official announcement of the surge, Canada sent a cable
to the U.S. Secretary of State. The cable emphasized remarks made by Canadian
Chief of Defence Staff General Natynczyk regarding the 2011 deadlines. The
cable reiterated that,
“In
accordance with a March 2008 parliamentary motion, no Canadian Forces - apart
from a military attaché in Kabul - or military equipment will remain in
Afghanistan after December 31, 2011.”[31]
The
surge would request an enormous burden on the other war wearied allies of ISAF.
8 long years had already been invested and now an open-ended commitment was
being asked for. After hearing the announcement, it was clear that the Canadian
public was still in favor of disengagement. Ipsos conducted a survey in late
December 2009 that showed 66% of Canadians disagreed with the troop surge.[32]
The Harper government was intent on
reflecting the Canadian public’s wishes. This sent a clear message to the U.S.
that Canada was not maneuvering politically.
 |
| Secretary General Rasmussen & Prime Minister Harper |
Secretary General Rasmussen also pitched the idea of “a
training role in Afghanistan after Canada's combat mission ends in 2011,” to
which Harper “promised that the government would look at the possibility, while
noting the difficulties in providing effective training outside Afghanistan.”[34]
By holding to the 2011 date, Harper was able to satisfy the Canadian public’s
wishes and meet their obligations to NATO. In return, Secretary General
Rasmussen “avoided criticism of Canada's decision and refrained from calling
for a reversal of the decision” when talking to the media.[35]
The results of the meeting were indicative of the delicate balancing act Harper
was performing, but was nevertheless succeeding at. Canada is successfully
navigating the demands of their citizens and fulfilling their commitment to
ISAF and NATO.
[9]
Ibid.
[14]
Ibid.
[17]
(Ipsos, 2009)
“Support for Mission in Afghanistan Holds Steady (48%) But Come 2011 Majority
(52%) Says It’s Time for Canada to Pull Out”
[22]
(Queen's University, 2012) Averaging poll data
for the issues of War, Foreign Policy, and Military
[26]
Ibid.
[28]
Ibid.
[31]
(Embassy Ottawa, 2009) “No Room For Doubt:
All Canadian Troops Out Of Afghanistan By December 2011”
[32]
(Ipsos, 2009)
“As United States Prepares to Deploy 30,000 More Troops into Foray in
Afghanistan, Majority of Canadians (66%) Disagrees that the Build-Up Will
Create Military Victory Over Taliban”
[33]
(Embassy Ottawa, 2010) “Canadian Pm And
Nato S-g Discuss Afghanistan, The Strategic Concept, And The Arctic”
[34]
Ibid.
[35]
Ibid
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